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From now until the end of the conference tournaments I will be doing NCAA tournament predictions. These will likely be weekly but could be bi weekly depending on my work load in school. I try my best to take into account everything the selection commitee does, and it certainly isn't something that is easy to do. Automatic bids will go to the team who is currently leading the conference, and in no way is my opinion on who will eventually win the conference tournaments.

South Region

Memphis(CUSA)
Texas
Wisconsin
Connecticut
Butler(Horizon)
Clemson
Notre Dame
Mississippi State
Arizona
UNLV
Kent State(MAC)
Western Kentucky(Sun Belt)
Davidson(Southern)
Cornell(Ivy)
Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
Play-in Winner(Alabama State(SWAC) vs. Norfolk State(MEAC)

East Regional

Duke(ACC)
Georgetown
Stanford
Purdue(Big Ten)
Marquette
Vanderbilt
Texas A&M
Rhode Island
Arkansas
St. Joseph's
BYU(Mountain West)
Arizona State
Virginia Commonwealth(Colonial)
Winthrop(Big South)
Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
Wagner(Northeast)

Midwest Regional

Kansas(Big 12)
UCLA(Pac 10)
Xavier(Atlantic 10)
Drake(Missouri Valley)
Indiana
Michigan State
Pittsburgh
Gonzaga
Baylor
Oklahoma
South Alabama
West Virginia
Oral Roberts(Summit)
Siena(MAAC)
UMBC(America East)
Lamar(Southland)

West Regional

Tennessee(SEC)
North Carolina
Louisville(Big East)
Kansas State
Washington State
St. Mary's(West Coast)
USC
Maryland
Syracuse
Ohio State
Houston
Dayton
Boise State(WAC)
Cal State Northridge(Big West)
Portland State(Big Sky)
American(Patriot)

Last 4 teams in were: 1 South Alabama, 2 West Virginia, 3 Dayton, 4 Arizona State
Last 8 out were: 1 Florida, 2 Oregon, 3 Massachusetts, 4 Ole Miss, 5 Miami, 6 NC State, 7 California, 8 Stephen F. Austin

Any comments and reasons why a certain team should be in or out, as well as issues with seeding are appreciated. It's hard to do these, and with the committee's policies on trying to keep the top seeds close to home in the first 2 rounds, along with trying to keep conference matchups from happening until the Elite 8, some teams end up over seeded or under seeded.

Buckeye22's NCAA tournament projections 2/17

I have to say that in the last year or so since I really started doing these and taking them seriously, I now have a whole new respect for the committee and the work they have to do. Years like this will be even tougher because some of the bubble teams, some of which will get in, would in most years probably only be looked at once and be NIT bound.

Also, the numbers and records that I used to do this were from results through Saturday(the 16th). With Duke's loss today they would probably drop to the overall number 3 or 4 instead of the 2, and Ohio State would likely drop a seed line, although they are already a seed lower than where I ranked them because of other reshuffling.

Buckeye22's NCAA tournament projections 2/17

I'm gonna nitpick your Big Ten team seedings a little. If you are basing your seedings on how teams are today, and not on how you expect them to finish, I think you have Wisconsin and Purdue basically flipflopped. I don't see how you can seed the Badgers ahead of the team that is above them in conference standings, and has swept them in the home-and-home series.

I also think your Big Ten seedings are about one low across the board (Ohio State excepted) - I would expect the Big Ten champ to rate a 2-seed and the rest to work down from there, but I can see with the perception of the Big Ten this year how it could well happen the way you have it. Overall, very well done.

Buckeye22's NCAA tournament projections 2/17

With the Purdue-Wisconsin situation, I guess I overlooked that. That will be looked at further and fixed next week.

I guess with the Big Ten I maybe sometimes unfairly knock them, because I've seen all the teams and their faults. I think if Purdue wins the conference we may be looking at a 3 seeded conference champion, because their computer profile is just really starting to come up and they have some terrible losses early. If Indiana or Wisconsin pull it out, then they may be able to get a 2.

Buckeye22's NCAA tournament projections 2/17

You know, immediately after I posted that I realized that Purdue losing to Indiana puts all three of those teams at 2 conference losses, and you're right - Wisconsin definitely does have the better OOC resume. So maybe you are spot-on there.

It's easy to knock the Big Ten this season - all the teams have looked downright ordinary at times. But the same can be said of just about everyone this year. I haven't seen more than a handful of teams that have looked consistantly dominant - the ACC seems like a two-team conference, the SEC is so up-and-down you never really know what to expect from them outside of Tennessee (who an average OSU team very easily could have beaten if they could have gotten just a little help off the bench) and certainly the Big East is playing a lot of mediocre ball this year. Only the Pac 10 seems to be playing consistantly well, and even there only UCLA looks like a true powerhouse. Should be an interesting Selection

buckeye22 Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Oct 11, 2006	Posted on: February 18, 2008 12:58 am Score: 95 Buckeye22's NCAA tournament projections 2/17 I have to say that in the last year or so since I really started doing these and taking them seriously, I now have a whole new respect for the committee and the work they have to do. Years like this will be even tougher because some of the bubble teams, some of which will get in, would in most years probably only be looked at once and be NIT bound. Also, the numbers and records that I used to do this were from results through Saturday(the 16th). With Duke's loss today they would probably drop to the overall number 3 or 4 instead of the 2, and Ohio State would likely drop a seed line, although they are already a seed lower than where I ranked them because of other reshuffling. [ Reply to Comment ]
Erkper Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Nov 30, 2006	Posted on: February 19, 2008 9:54 pm Score: 92 Buckeye22's NCAA tournament projections 2/17 I'm gonna nitpick your Big Ten team seedings a little. If you are basing your seedings on how teams are today, and not on how you expect them to finish, I think you have Wisconsin and Purdue basically flipflopped. I don't see how you can seed the Badgers ahead of the team that is above them in conference standings, and has swept them in the home-and-home series. I also think your Big Ten seedings are about one low across the board (Ohio State excepted) - I would expect the Big Ten champ to rate a 2-seed and the rest to work down from there, but I can see with the perception of the Big Ten this year how it could well happen the way you have it. Overall, very well done. [ Reply to Comment ]
buckeye22 Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Oct 11, 2006	Posted on: February 19, 2008 10:09 pm Score: 94 Buckeye22's NCAA tournament projections 2/17 With the Purdue-Wisconsin situation, I guess I overlooked that. That will be looked at further and fixed next week. I guess with the Big Ten I maybe sometimes unfairly knock them, because I've seen all the teams and their faults. I think if Purdue wins the conference we may be looking at a 3 seeded conference champion, because their computer profile is just really starting to come up and they have some terrible losses early. If Indiana or Wisconsin pull it out, then they may be able to get a 2. [ Reply to Comment ]
Erkper Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Nov 30, 2006	Posted on: February 20, 2008 10:34 am Score: 95 Buckeye22's NCAA tournament projections 2/17 You know, immediately after I posted that I realized that Purdue losing to Indiana puts all three of those teams at 2 conference losses, and you're right - Wisconsin definitely does have the better OOC resume. So maybe you are spot-on there. It's easy to knock the Big Ten this season - all the teams have looked downright ordinary at times. But the same can be said of just about everyone this year. I haven't seen more than a handful of teams that have looked consistantly dominant - the ACC seems like a two-team conference, the SEC is so up-and-down you never really know what to expect from them outside of Tennessee (who an average OSU team very easily could have beaten if they could have gotten just a little help off the bench) and certainly the Big East is playing a lot of mediocre ball this year. Only the Pac 10 seems to be playing consistantly well, and even there only UCLA looks like a true powerhouse. Should be an interesting Selection